epiac1216: Pandemic Business: One Flu Over the Cuckoo's Nest

epiac1216 (

epiac1216) wrote,
@ 2006-03-27 14:07:00

Current mood:	pensive
Current music:	Piano Concerto No. 5, in E Flat Major by Beethoven
Entry tags:	pandemic

Pandemic Business: One Flu Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Health experts have been monitoring a new and extremely severe influenza virus–the H5N1 strain–-for almost nine years. The H5N1 strain first infected humans in Hong Kong in 1997, causing 18 cases, including six deaths. Since mid-2003, this virus has caused the largest and most severe outbreaks in poultry on record. In December 2003, infections in people exposed to sick birds were identified. Bird flu outbreaks have been confirmed in five countries and warnings are that it will hit the United States by Autumn.

Since December 2003, over 100 human cases have been laboratory confirmed in four Asian countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam), and more than half of these people have died. Most cases have occurred in previously healthy children and young adults. Fortunately, the virus does not jump easily from birds to humans or spread readily and sustainably among humans. Should H5N1 evolve to a form as contagious as normal influenza, a pandemic could begin.

Not all cases of human H5N1 infection are reported and consequently the exact mortality rate is unknown. Earlier historical flu pandemics, which were also believed to be of avian origin, had reportedly an average mortality rate of 2.5-5%. The current projected worst case scenario for a H5N1 pandemic is somewhere around 150 million human deaths directly due to H5N1 infection (or two to three percent of the world's human population). No one knows what the chances are for this worst case scenario.

In the context of Katrina's fiasco, is the United States prepared to control the spread of this dangerous virus that will sooner or later fly into the country? As I mentioned earlier, warning are that the avian flu will reach the United States by autumn. What do you think?